It’s a different story on fourth downs, though. Tennessee boasts one of the league’s best defenses on third down: they only allowed the offense to convert a first down on 34.2% of their tries last season (77-of-225), again doing a great job of wrapping up tackles and playing short of the sticks. Opposing defenses continue to underestimate him in such high-leverage moments. Getting sure-handed receivers like Michael Thomas and Jimmy Graham involved on these pivotal downs could do a lot to help, but so would a heavier dose of Taysom Hill in short-yardage situations in his career, Hill has converted a first down 53 times on 79 combined carries, catches, and pass attempts when the Saints have needed 3 yards or fewer on third or fourth down (67%). The Saints converted third downs at an average pace (40.2% of the time) last season, and obviously they’re hoping Carr can boost that number - so it’s a little disconcerting to see his Raiders ranked just behind New Orleans with a 39.9% conversion rate. He primarily rushes off the right edge, so he’ll be a big test for second-year Saints left tackle Trevor Penning.
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He broke out a year earlier with 12 sacks and 70 total quarterback pressures per Pro Football Focus charting, earning his first career Pro Bowl nod in 2021. One point in their favor: star edge rusher Harold Landry III is back after missing the entire 2022 season with a training camp ACL injury. The Titans have done a great job stopping the run and forcing teams to throw on them, only to struggle against the pass. It’s partly due to their strong run defense leading to more dropbacks, but no team allowed more passing yards per game (274.8) and they were pedestrian in both touchdown percentage (4.3%) and interception percentage (2.1%), with a nondescript pass rush (their 5.5% sack rate ranked 6th-worst). So it’s encouraging to see Tennessee ranking league-average in pass defense. The margin for error is razor-slim when you’re attempting the 6th-fewest pass attempts per game (30.1). It’s no wonder they made Carr such a high priority in the offseason. The offense was barely functional with an injured Jameis Winston or washed-up Andy Dalton at the helm they’re lucky Juwan Johnson broke out as a scoring threat, singlehandedly accounting for 29% of their touchdown receptions last season. New Orleans posted the 9th-worst interception rate (2.7%), ranking just above average in sack rate (6.9%).
Don’t let their league-average rate of passing yards per game (217.2) fool you: it was bad. The Saints had a miserable passing attack last year. Vrabel’s defense does an excellent job of reading their keys, plugging lanes, and rallying to the football. They tied with the San Francisco 49ers to allow the fewest yards per attempt (3.4) and averaged fewer rushing yards per game than anyone else (76.9). Their 9 touchdown runs allowed ranked 3rd-best around the NFL. The Titans kept the league’s best run defense intact this summer. They may struggle to run on Tennessee with or without Kamara.
Taysom Hill picked up 60, best on the team, with Rashid Shaheed gaining 44 on a trick play. Alvin Kamara led the running backs with his longest run picking up 27 yards. Their 12 touchdown runs were tied for 22nd, and they struggled to create big gains on the ground. They ranked 19th in rushing yards per game (116.6) and 18th in yards per attempt (4.3). Look, the Saints want to run the football - they logged 465 carries as a team last season, 14th-most - but they have yet to show they’re any good at it. They only intercepted 3 passes and, crucially, bagged just 2 sacks in scoring position. But they were vulnerable against the pass - Tennessee yielded 17 touchdown passes on just 73 pass attempts in the red zone. They buckled up well against the run with opponents rushing 66 times inside the 20-yard line but scoring just 9 touchdown runs and averaging only 2.5 yards per carry. Last year the Titans allowed the 13th-fewest points per game (21.1) with a league-average red zone percentage allowed (55.1%, which ranked 15th). Tennessee’s scoring defense will be a great challenge to see if the Saints have the right guys in position to punch in a touchdown. It’s been a while since we’ve seen him do it, but Michael Thomas is a red zone asset too: 30 of his 35 career touchdown catches came inside the 20-yard line. He doesn’t have a great history of red zone performance (his Raiders actually had a worse scoring percentage than the Saints last year at 47.9%, tied for 6th-lowest) but they’re hoping Carr can take advantage of strong red zone personnel like Jimmy Graham, Juwan Johnson, Jamaal Williams, and Taysom Hill to end drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. They ranked 11th-worst in points per game (19.4) and 12th-worst in red zone scoring percentage (52.1%), which is why they worked so hard to recruit Carr.
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